The Raptors’ remaining 15-game schedule is somewhat favourable, given nine will be played at the Air Canada Centre, including two against the wretched Heat.
The only time the Raptors will be forced to play in a different time zone will be the season finale on April 16 against the Chicago Bulls.
In contrast, the Washington Wizards, who enter the night a half-game behind the fifth-seeded Raptors with one game in hand, have to play 10 road games, including a five-game trip to the West.
The Philadelphia 76ers, one of the league’s hottest teams, have pulled to within one game of the Raptors. They have eight home dates, including tonight’s much-anticipated tilt against the Denver Nuggets as Allen Iverson makes his return to the City of Brotherly Love following his trade to the Mile High City.
Barring some completely unforeseen winning streak, the Raptors won’t come close to matching last year’s 47-win total, rendering all that pre-season talk of a 50-win season complete nonsense.
In fact, following next Wednesday’s meeting with the Detroit Pistons, it’s conceivable the Raptors will have a losing record.
Ford admitted that watching the first unit play so hard to get the Raps back into a 65-65 tie going into the fourth quarter, and then being part of a second unit that turned that tie into a 10-point deficit, frustrated him.
Mitchell gave no indication that Ford’s role as leader of the second unit is going to change, so it’s up to Ford and the people around him to accept that role and start contributing in a positive manner.
BLAME PRICE
Mitchell said both Jose Calderon and Ford were complaining about being ridden by the Utah guards and not getting calls. And while Utah starting point guard Deron Williams was aggressive defensively with Calderon, it was Ronnie Price’s enthusiastic defence that helped push Ford over the edge. Williams certainly seemed to think so. Asked about his Price’s play, he said: "Ronnie was playing great defence and hitting shots and frustrating people out there." Count Ford among the most frustrated.
Nesterovic had been continuing his resurgent play, offensively and defensively, and he’ll only benefit from the reduced workload he’ll have to carry with Bosh back.
"The message to our players is to carry the last two games over when we get home and get a little rest and finish out the last 15 strong and we’ll be fine," said Mitchell. "I love the way we competed the last two games."
Bosh is coming back – and not a moment too soon to lessen the angst among some of you – and one big question lingers:
What do to with Rasho?
Dude’s been playing great. Giving them around 15 points and nine boards a night in the last 10. Solid defensively.
Does he still start? Do you put Bargnani back on the bench?
If I know Sam, and this is mere speculation ‘cause I didn’t get a chance to ask him out west, Rasho’s going to come off the bench now and the big man rotation, like I’ve been suggesting for weeks, will be down to three.
Rafer’s biggest problem here wasn’t Sam, it was his teammates, including one J. Rose, who used to make little subtle cracks about players being in new roles here and wondering whether they could handle them, and one V. Carter, whose on-again, off-again effort caused Alston much grief because, I’m told, Skip was as competitive as they come and he couldn’t handle half-baked effort.
Of course, Alston wasn’t nearly mature enough to handle either of those situations, which led to a couple of memorable meltdowns. He bristled at coaching sometimes, another sign of immaturity, but to his ever-lasting credit, he’s grown up a lot. The fits of anger and petulance are few and far between these days.
I know Sam’s impressed with the way he’s turned things around.
"I’ve been working out for the past couple of days getting back in shape and my knee has responded pretty well," he said. "I’m really excited because I’ve been waiting for a while now, watching on the bench every game. I’m finally back now!"
Here’s a recent selections on the T.J. situation I found insightful:
The problem right now is that Ford is simply trying to do too much. It is feast or famine when he is on the floor. TJ will either try to create for others with his quickness, or more often than not, attempt to score from every angle. It will be one, or the other. And when his game is off, he doesn’t slow down and let the game breathe, he continues to push – regardless of time or score, good or bad, hot or not. …..
Let the game breathe – that is a perfect way to explain what Ford doesn’t do when he’s in bad T.J. mode, it seems to me.
And:
While all this is happening, Calderon is also suffering. His minutes have become choppy. Jose even seems to be pressing now, trying to force his game somewhat, to stay on the floor. Despite being an outstanding shooter, Jose passes up shots to make sure his teammates are happy – and to this observer, in an attempt to balance out Ford’s ‘shot happy’ play, that often leaves his teammates standing and watching in dismay. Sam Mitchell needs Jose to play to his potential, not worry about his role, minutes, or creating a balance for TJ.
And this is interesting too. One question I get a lot is what is T.J. like. People see his kind of scowly nature on the floor – and particularly in contract to Jose’s friendly puppy vibe – think that’s what he’s like all the time. Not true. Having had the opportunity to see him around teammates and family T.J. is a funny, friendly, approachable guy. His teammates genuinely seem to like him, and vice versa. But just as households or workplaces can be put on edge by one member that is consistently ‘high-maintenance’, it makes sense that teams can be too.
Here’s Leo’s take:
Body language is also a very important element to any point guards play and impact on his team. Jose is constantly talking to and pushing his teammates – even with TJ, encouraging him thru his struggles. Ford on the other hand, carries himself in a different manner, often sulking and looking mad or upset.
And this is the key part:
It is difficult to distinguish if he is irritated at himself, his teammates, the coach, the refs, or who knows what? Ford needs to realize his teammates feed off his leadership and energy, and if it is negative, then that is what they will run with.
The losses, however, do not constitute a total wasted opportunity. Last year, the burgeoning Raptors learned what they could do without Bosh. This season, the lessons, while tinged with a little more pessimism, were no less important for a team trying to hold on to fifth spot in the regular season’s final 15 games.
• Any defensive strides the Raptors have made are relative.
When Calderon is on the floor, the problems start with him. He is often a better offensive option than Ford, but he is always a worse defensive option. Calderon faced a lot of tough point guards in the five games, but even middle-of-the-road Beno Udrih of Sacramento got past him at will.
But he is not alone. The Raptors have no lockdown defender on the perimeter, and big men Andrea Bargnani and Kris Humphries blow assignments regularly.
If the Raptors are to succeed this spring, their defensive intensity has to be a constant.
• The point guard tandem – touted as the best in the NBA – can be quite bad.
The Raptors’ greatest strength, other than Bosh, is the 48 minutes of excellence they usually can count on from the point guard position.
But Ford was awful on the trip, making all the wrong decisions, then blowing up in Utah. And Calderon was no great prize, either. His defence was shoddy and his offence, up until the game against Utah, was not up to par.
Counter-intuitively, Calderon got less aggressive in hunting down his shots with Bosh out.
Given that he is a 53-per-cent shooter, the Raptors need Calderon to look for his offence, especially when some of his fellow starters are not playing well.
• Bargnani is not ready to contribute regularly.
Bargnani’s play devolved as the trip went on. In Utah, he looked lost on the floor and his shot looked flat.
But on the flip side, fellow big man Rasho Nesterovic was golden. He played more than 36 minutes in three of the five games, and looked out of place against only up-tempo Golden State.
If Bargnani’s woes continue, coach Sam Mitchell knows he can count on Nesterovic in the playoffs.
• First quarters are important.
Toronto tied Utah 16-16 in Monday’s first quarter. Consequently, the Raptors were in the game until Ford’s blowup sent the proceedings off the rails.
Against the Los Angeles Lakers, the Raptors won the first quarter by three points, and hung around for most of the game against a vastly superior team.
In the other three games, the Raptors played next to no defence, and got blitzed in the opening frame. Lately, Toronto has not shown the ability to complete a comeback after falling behind by a wide margin.
"We got to play every night like it’s the last one," Calderon said after Monday’s game.
Especially early on.
It was the grand finale of T.J.’s badly reviewed travelling show, in which he responded to – and confirmed – his backup status by playing like a one-man band, complete with cymbal crashes. Ford’s season was derailed by injuries, and a period of adjustment was expected. But right now Ford is lost, and he’s screwing the entire team up. And a season that was already vaguely disappointing has taken a sharp turn for the worse.
So with a quarter of the season left, the big question for the Toronto Raptors is this: Can they fix what is wrong with T.J. Ford in time?
The short answer is that they have already tried. Ford met with both head coach Sam Mitchell and director of basketball operations Marc Eversley two weeks ago in Miami to address his frustrations, both with himself and with his role. He has talked about how, after his two stingers and a spinal bruise this season, this is yet another adjustment in a season of adjustments.
And yet he still looks like he is trying to win back his starting job from Jose Calderon on each and every play. It’s dragging Calderon down, too. Since Ford returned following the all-star break, Calderon is averaging 9.1 points and 7.7 assists per game, as opposed to 13.0 and 9.2 as a starter on the season.
But can Mitchell reach the man he demoted? And can the return of Bosh – which should occur Wednesday, barring setbacks after a workout last night – help his fellow Texan?
Maybe, and maybe. But this franchise has already done everything possible to help the kid. The Raptors added his mentor, John Lucas, to the basketball staff. Mitchell has refused to criticize Ford in the media, or in front of his teammates. Ford’s teammates haven’t vented their own frustration.
The organization has faith in T.J. Ford despite all the injuries, despite his occasional stubborn unpredictability, and despite this.
So now it’s up to Ford to justify that faith, with the playoffs a month away.
The bigger question looming over all of this is the same one that shadows the organization. Eventually, the Raptors are going to have to make a choice between Ford and Calderon.
Don’t ink Calderon into the 2008-09 starting lineup just yet. Ford is a better defender and more explosive player, and tends to best Calderon in practice when healthy. Ford won the job this season, and he could win it next season.
But it’s a competition now, and the smart money would seem to be on Calderon. The third-year Spaniard has proven himself a starting point guard this season despite some defensive deficiencies, and he will command good money as a free agent this summer.
And after Toronto re-signs him, it is a safe bet that two of their four highest-paid players will play the same position, dividing up 48 minutes or so per night. Rather than spend between US$13-16-million on your point guard position, wouldn’t it be more prudent to spend about US$10-million there – on one of these guys and a veteran backup – and devote the extra to your vacant small forward position?
Given Ford’s injury history, and his current tailspin, Calderon would seem to be the safer choice. And if that’s the case, it won’t be easy to trade an undersized point guard with a scary history of spinal injuries, even with protections built into the contract that could make it possible. Pray Isiah Thomas doesn’t get fired in New York.
Those, however, are questions for tomorrow. Now, as in Utah, T.J. Ford has to be brought under control. But this time he has to do it himself.
The top three seeds in the East playoffs will be Boston, Detroit and Orlando, but nothing’s certain from Nos. 4-8. Cleveland is currently fourth, 3½ games up on Toronto in the race for home-court advantage in the first round, but a healthy Bosh could help close that gap, starting Friday when the Raptors visit the Cavs.
Bosh’s presence means fewer losses for Toronto, which damages Washington’s and Philadelphia’s dreams of rising higher than No. 6 in the East. Of course, that might not be terrible for the Raptors, playing Orlando instead of LeBron James in the opening round. But that’s a different discussion.
Which brings us to the Hawks, Nets and Bulls. Considering Toronto’s lack of success this month, a game vs. the Bosh-less Raptors could be considered a gimme. And that would’ve been a welcome development for Atlanta on April 2, New Jersey on April 5 and 11, and Chicago on April 16 in the regular-season finale.
Instead, when those teams play the Raptors on those crucial dates down the stretch, Toronto has to be considered the favorite, making it all the more difficult for playoff wannabes to slip into the postseason.
Magic vs. Raptors (Orlando wins season series, 2-1):
Edge: Uh-oh. Raptors, in seven games. But that’s if all-star Chris Bosh returns to form from a knee injury. Bosh’s two-week absence has led to Toronto’s untimely slide (a five-game losing streak). Bosh is a handful himself, even for Howard, and they could cancel out each other.
But it is the Raptors guards who can give the Magic fits. This is where the Magic are the most vulnerable and have been for years.
Jose Calderon can put on a pick-and-roll clinic. Then the Raps can throw at change-up at the Magic with speedster T.J. Ford. Orlando wants to avoid this matchup if at all possible.
Realistically, the Raptors could seek a deal that would probably have to be structured in a way where the Jazz would get T.J. Ford and Rasho Nesterovic in exchange for Kirilenko, due to his max contract status that pays him roughly $15 million a year.
This deal would make sense for Utah because they would be getting a large contract that expires in a year in the form of Nesterovic’s contract, but more importantly, they would receive extremely well traveled and experienced big man. As one of the youngest teams in the league, an experienced player who has a championship ring would bring some experience to a perennial playoff contender. The Jazz would also secure a legitimate backup to Deron Williams, insuring that Williams will not experience burn out or wear down too easily due to the amount of minutes he’ll play as he gets older.
The Raptors, on the other hand, will get a near-seven footer who can fill up multiple stats at multiple positions while potentially threatening a triple-double on any given night. He would address several glaring issues including rebounding and defense, yet still be an offensive threat from both the inside and outside the paint.
There would have to be a lot of convincing on both ends, though. If the Raptors would deal for Kirilenko, they would need to be convinced that his volatile personality is a result of difficulties with Jerry Sloan, and not with criticism in general. He has also had a history back problems that have cut severely into his season in 2004-2005. On the other side, the Jazz would have to be convinced that Ford would be willing to come off the bench to support Deron Williams while also making sure to take care of his body and get a clean bill of health regarding his spinal stenosis.
The greatest difficulty towards consummating this deal is the length of the contract that Kirilenko still has remaining. With three more years on his max contract, the Raptors would be essentially taking on $45 million in contract that would be very difficult for them to move out from under should Kirilenko show some of the same discontent and inconsistency he’s shown in Utah. With Bryan Colangelo consistently emphasizing contract flexibility, this deal may not be a realistic option, especially if one considers the fact that Bargnani may still blossom into a near-max contract player. Also, with his price tag, Kirilenko would become the highest paid Raptor on the roster, but would clearly not be the number one option on the team. Would this cause friction between Kirilenko and Chris Bosh? Would it be a problem for those in upper management, who would see this as a possible “Jalen Rose” contract situation?
In addition, the Jazz as well as most other teams in the league are quite aware of Ford’s injury, and should the Raptors choose to entertain offers in this off season, the question has to be whether the perceived risk is outweighed by the need for a team to attain a starting point guard with unprecedented speed. Potential career ending injuries are a tough commodity to evaluate, and one has to wonder if his stock has dropped as a result of the uncertainty of his future health. Without knowing how many more injury free years he has left, he may no longer be an attractive leading point guard for teams around the league.
Raptered Fan Syndrome is a condition brought on by long-term psychological abuse at the hands of the Toronto Raptors. This abuse is a result of excessive exposure to the Raptors organization:
- The Raptors PR machine (Chuck Swirsky, commentating, radio show and blog).
- Suspect coaching (Smitch).
- A clandestine management team (B.C, Emery and Peddie).
- A substandard product (The Raptors team themselves).
But let’s also be fair to TJ, he hasn’t been the reason the Raptors have been losing. They have looked bad in just about every possible way that a team can. You can’t give up 70+ points in a half and expect to win. I mean, damn, some teams don’t even score 70+ in a game. The Raptors can talk all they want about Bosh not being there, but let’s remember that Bosh isn’t a great defender. Sure, having him on the offensive side effects the defensive side as he is able to wear down defenses and his length doesn’t hurt on D, but it would be irresponsible to suggest that Bosh being out is the reason the Raptors are losing.
Let’s take a look at the past 5 games. The Raptors aren’t having that much of a problem scoring, they are almost at 100 points per game (although let’s also take into consideration that they are facing some second stringers once things get out of control), but they are giving up almost 115 points per game and only Seattle is worse than that in the past 5. The Raptors have also been letting teams shoot almost 54% from the field, which is not a formula for success. They still can’t rebound the ball, so while it sucks, at least they’re consistent there, but what is really killing them are the turnovers. The Raptors are turning the ball over almost 15 times per game and they’re doing it early in the game, which is putting them in a hole. Guys can talk all they want about TJ coming in and things going crazy from that point on in the game, but realistically, by the time TJ enters the game, the Raptors are typically down by 10 points because they can’t hold onto the ball and can’t play D after they turn it over. TJ then comes in and tries to get 10 points back each time down the floor, which only makes things worse. But just keep that in mind next time you’re blaming TJ for everything…it’s the perfect storm when he gets the call to come in.
It has to be distressing for Raptors fans to watch what’s going on with their team. They’ve lost five in a row, Ford comes in every night looking like he thinks the way he’s going to get his job back is by getting buckets, and they’re in real danger of losing ground in the playoff race (they’re currently the 5th seed) and it’s not inconceivable that, if the losing continues, they could drop out of the playoff race altogether, even after Chris Bosh returns to the lineup this week.
If the problem with Ford is really as bad as it seems, and Sam Mitchell really can’t get through to him, should they consider something as drastic as benching T.J. altogether for the rest of the season?
I wouldn’t rush Bosh back into tonight’s game.
For two compelling reasons:
1) If we’re going to avoid a 1st round Cavs/Magic sweep, surely we need the team to learn how to man-up the confidence to play without Bosh, in stretches. Stop the bleeding, like we’ll need to stop a 10-0 Lebron run in Game 1 in Cleveland.
Tell me we’re deeper than the last placed team in the league, who happen to have their Stats Leader in every significant category injured (cough Beasley sweepstakes cough):
Points D. Wade 24.6
Rebounds U. Haslem 9.0
Assists D. Wade 6.9
Steals D. Wade 1.7
Blocks A. Mourning 1.7
2) Bad knees are a bitch. Rest ‘em.
65-65, start of the fourth quarter. In comes T.J. Ford for Jose Calderon. Ford’s next five minutes: missed shot, turnover, turnover, defensive foul, offensive foul, Napoleon complex!, tech, tech, ejection.
I’d say that’s a good day at the office.
HOOK EM HORNS
Do most Toronto fans realize the playoff record of those 11 Phoenix Suns teams?
Or, that 2 of those 11 teams failed to qualify for the playoffs?
Or, that the cumulative W-L record of those 11 teams is 452-336/.574?
(which is almost exactly the same as the Raptors’ W-L record last season, i.e. 47-35/.573)
The optimism of Raptors’ supporters who believe unabashedly – i.e. ‘In Bryan We Trust’ – that the current team is somehow going to get a whole lot better during the next few seasons under the direction of Mr. Colangelo … is a source of wonder to the astute observer who has actually taken a closer look at the performance of the teams he led as the GM of the Phoenix Suns.
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lol, firesammitchell.com, thats awesome!
Raps Fan’s last blog post..Raptered Fan Syndrome
Key points …
Grange’s (G & M) is on the money, again.
National Post is playing ‘Battleship’ … a ‘miss’ followed by a ‘hit’, then another ‘miss’, etc.
HoopsAddict … is totally out to lunch … on this one.
khandor’s last blog post..It’s a bird, it’s a plane, it’s a diagnosed illness