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Following is a guest post done by Tom Liston, someone who is quickly becoming a trusted source for all things Raptors and player-stats related. It’s a great breakdown of options out there for us right now. Be sure to follow Tom on twitter at @liston

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With most of the core roster in place, Altraps.com vet Spudz recently commented on the most likely remaining Raptors moves. He spoke of the needs the Raptors should address with the last spot, but stopped short of speculating on the many potential moves Colangelo may consider. So with Spudz’ well documented piece in mind, I scoured the data for potential hidden gems that could be signed for the vet’s minimum. There is nothing like spending a weekend thinking who the Raptors should sign to sit at the end of the pine.

Since many of us believe the Raptors have plenty of scoring power, the emphasis for third stringers that bring a strong defensive game was my focus. There have been a few comments of the "who cares, it’s our 12 to 15^th man  what does it matter?" variety. It may matter – you want a deep bench for two reasons: 1) as insurance for potential injuries and 2) to have varying skill sets to enable Jay Triano to maximize the impact of different matchups. Given that many of the game’s top playmakers are wings, I believe a strong wing defender would be a nice fit for the Raptors.

First, as per Spudz: If Wright goes down this season, we are still a little thin at the small forward position…

So, what can we get for the veterans minimum? I started with a screen of Defensive Rating statistics which is used at a number of sites and defined as:

Defensive Rating (available since the 1977-78 season in the NBA); for players (and teams) it is points allowed per 100 possessions

No statistical analysis work is perfect  far from it. But for the veterans minimum, you’re looking for one of two things: a seasoned vet that’s a great locker room presence that still has a little game (that perhaps we lost with the George trade) or a player whose value may not have been fully recognized. The latter sometimes can be found by pouring through the numbers and then having a closer look.

So, what does the Defensive Rating screen yield? For players that played over 1,000 minutes last season, here are the top 10:

Maybe the analysis isn’t too bad. Out of a sample size of almost 300 players, the top 30 are many of the obvious names many defensive first or second team members over the years. But do you notice the one name that really stands out? Ime Udoka?! Small Forward Ime Udoka?! Who was paid a whopping $1.08 million last year Ime Udoka?!

Okay, so he’s 31 (Bruce Bowen is 38, btw) and shoots 38%, but his defence is impressive. Don’t worry, he doesn’t take many shots and we’ll have loads of guys that need to get theirs anyway. (Note Carlos Delfino shot 40% in his last year as a Raptor).

Since stats can lie, what do some of the experts say?

ESPN (Hollinger): Udoka’s calling card is defense; he’d be the primary wing stopper on almost any other team and was used that way whenever Bruce Bowen checked out of the game. Though Udoka isn’t quite as long or quick as Bowen he’s much stronger and has the same dogged mentality.

I submit "dogged mentality" on defence is something we are sorely lacking.

And Hoopshype.com: "Good rebounding skills for his size… Can play three perimeter spots".

Ah, Bryan… make the call. Very little downside (veteran’s minimum likely?) for a guy that on paper is among the league’s top defenders.

Additionally, Spudz prefers "… a PF/C with some upside and rebounding potential." We could dream up all kinds of scenarios here, but it definitely requires opening up a roster spot. The easiest option I see is simply buying out Banks. No, it does not affect the cap, but the guy will be a pylon for the next two years otherwise. Then we could sign a player to the vet’s minimum.

So who should we chose? I haven’t been the biggest fan of Pops Mensah Bonsu as I think his game is limited. However, given our new offensive firepower, he may just be another great role player. Running the screen with a lower minimum minutes played (since Pops just scraped by 250 minutes), shows him as ranked 26^th out of 370 players. No doubt the low number of minutes can skew these stats. Who ranks #1 out of 370 in offensive rebound rating? You got it, Pops. Okay, that’s a fluke. How about defensive rebound rate then? Ah… Pops is #1 AGAIN. For a minimum pay guy, this is a no-brainer.

Remember that Udoka and Mensah-Bonsu will not likely be core rotation players. And you’re paying them (likely) the league minimum. Note that when we are talking about veterans minimum contracts, our sample size of players will no doubt have some major flaws  so you’re looking for solid role players. Given the data, it’s hard to see the downside. The price is right.

So you don’t like Udoka or Mensah-Bonsu? Here are other potential options  separated by wings and PF/C. These players are currently unrestricted free agents and perhaps take the veteran’s minimum (I’ll note some would be a stretch to take it  Von Wafer case in point). At Raptors Republic, Joey Graham was offered up as an option  at first I dismissed it, but if I put him in the wing category, he certainly rebounds relatively well. However, I stick by my Udoka pick as he screens as a far superior defender and even has a slight edge on Joey for rebounding.

Potential Wing (for league minimum) ranking by Defensive Rating

Potential Wing (for league minimum) ranking by weighted Defensive Rebounding

Potential PF (for league minimum) ranking by Defensive Rating

Potential PF (for league minimum) ranking by weighted Offensive Rebounding

Potential PF (for league minimum) ranking by weighted Defensive Rebounding

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